Forex Article

Forex Avenue: The Road to Riches

In my continuing quest to provide visitors of my site with a large amount of options to chose from when considering working from home I have done some research on Forex trading. I first learned of Forex trading while pursuing my MBA program. For those of you who have never heard of this, Forex trading is the exchange of foreign currency.

I know I would have never even know this was an option for making money had I not found out in class. Most of the really big corporations have departments of people that do this for a living because it can be very lucrative if done correctly. The best news I have learned about this process of exchanging currencies is that many of the websites that you can sign up with to do this offer free trial accounts to help you learn before you invest your money into trying it. You won't make any money in the trial accounts if you do well, it is just pretend money essentially but with the real market conditions. If you do well in the trial account you will know if this is something you want to try on your own.

Benefits to Forex trading are that is can be done 24/7 whereas the stock market is a business hours only exchange. It is 24/7 because it is done with countries around the world so clearly there are countries that are awake and working while we sleep. Another benefit is you are in control of the trading on your account. You do not need to hire a licensed broker to make your trades and charge you fees. Along those same lines, anyone who does any investing most likely knows that some funds require you to own then for a certain period of time or pay early withdrawal fees. You do not need to concern yourself with this either. One last benefit that I would like to point out is the fact that Forex is not really subject to the same kinds of swings in the market that stocks are subject to. Of course if you always buy and sell the same currencies then there will be market swings. But, because there are hundreds of currencies out there, there is always going to be something for you to make money on because while one currency is up in value another one is down and vice versa.

There are many resources available to someone interested in becoming involved in this type of training. The Federal Reserve Bank's website is just one example of the information available — http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/foreignex.html. Here is another article that you will find helpful in starting out in this field. http://www.forex.com/pdf/pro2.pdf . I have also included one of the sites that does offer a free lesson.

While there are many benefits to this type of training, as I mentioned above, there are certainly risks involved as well. There are risks with exchange rates, central banks in foreign countries, and risks involving interest rates and credit. Forex is quickly becoming a popular way to help diversify your investment portfolio. If you are good with understanding investing concepts and enjoy doing it this may be the home business opportunity for you. Just do your research and try to find one of the sites offering the free trial account to practice with and you are well on your way down the Road to Riches.

by Scott Bianchi

Advantages of the Forex Market

What are the advantages of the Forex Market over other types of investments?

When thinking about various investments, there is one investment vehicle that comes to mind. The Forex or Foreign Currency Market has many advantages over other types of investments. The Forex market is open 24 hrs a day, unlike the regular stock markets. Most investments require a substantial amount of capital before you can take advantage of an investment opportunity. To trade Forex, you only need a small amount of capital. Anyone can enter the market with as little as $300 USD to trade a "mini account", which allows you to trade lots of 10,000 units. One lot of 10,000 units of currency is equal to 1 contract. Each "pip" or move up or down in the currency pair is worth a $1 gain or loss, depending on which side of the market you are on. A standard account gives you control over 100,000 units of currency and a pip is worth $10.

The Forex market is also very liquid. When trading Forex you have full control of your capital.

Many other types of investments require holding your money up for long periods of time. This is a disadvantage because if you need to use the capital it can be difficult to access to it without taking a huge loss. Also, with a small amount of money, you can control

Forex traders can be profitable in bullish or bearish market conditions. Stock market traders need stock prices to rise in order to take a profit. Forex traders can make a profit during up trends and downtrends. Forex Trading can be risky, but with having the ability to have a good system to follow, good money management skills, and possessing self discipline, Forex trading can be a relatively low risk investment.

The Forex market can be traded anytime, anywhere. As long as you have access to a computer, you have the ability to trade the Forex market. An important thing to remember is before jumping into trading currencies, is it wise to practice with "paper money", or "fake money." Most brokers have demo accounts where you can download their trading station and practice real time with fake money. While this is no guarantee of your performance with real money, practicing can give you a huge advantage to become better prepared when you trade with your real, hard earned money. There are also many Forex courses on the internet, just be careful when choosing which ones to purchase.

by Heather Redmond

Forex Trading Systems

1: Forex Trading Systems Scam
Have you ever encountered an online promotion for a forex system, strategy or software?

2: Forex Market Scam
The Forex market is the biggest financial market in the world. But this doesn't make it easier; on the contrary.

3: Risks of Trading in Forex Market
Although every investment involves some risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial.

4: Learn Forex Trading
The instantaneous effect and up-to-date news provided by the Online Forex Software exchange trading platform in the regime of online Forex, have given you the classical opportunity of taking decisions and immediate implementation.

5: The Forex Market and Understanding Foreign Exchange Rates
Unlike the stock exchange, the Forex Market (foreign exchange market) is a relatively new player to the investment world. Today's current Forex market model started in the early 1970's, and today it represents the biggest financial market around, even surpassing the stock market. With trading surpassing $2 trillion dollars per day, the Forex market attracts more and more investors all the time. Before an investor starts trading on the Forex market, he should grasp the fundamentals of how exchange rates work.

6: Why Hedge Foreign Currency Risk
International commerce has rapidly increased as the internet has provided a new and more transparent marketplace for individuals and entities alike to conduct international business and trading activities. Significant changes in the international economic and political landscape have led to uncertainty regarding the direction of foreign exchange rates. This uncertainty leads to volatility and the need for an effective vehicle to hedge foreign exchange rate risk and/or interest rate changes while, at the same time, effectively ensuring a future financial position.

7: Forex Swing Trading with Elliott Wave
One of the most reliable tools used to predict forex market swings is Elliott Wave analysis. Elliott Wave analysis can be used to identify trends and countertrends, trend continuation or exhaustion and to evaluate the potential price targets of a trend.

8: Timing is Everything With Forex Trading
Finding a good Forex broker is pivotal to the success gained by using the Forex trading systems. The direct result of your trading experience will be inherently dependant on the ability to find an experienced Forex broker.

9: Currency Trading Training - 7 Favorite Tips
Currency trading training is an ongoing process. Even when a trader has reached a reasonable level of success constant monitoring is necessary. These 7 favorite tips can be used regularly as reminders in the training process.

10: Online Currency Trading Tutorials
Whether are learning to drive a car or trade in the Forex market you benefit from the experience and knowledge of others. None of us ever really believe that we are an expert at something as soon as we try it for the first time. For this reason, unless you are already maintaining a healthy bank balance trading Forex then you can benefit from a tutorial in Forex trading.

The History of FOREX Trading

The origin of Forex trading traces its history to centuries ago. Different currencies and the need to exchange them had existed since the Babylonians. They are credited with the first use of paper notes and receipts. Speculation hardly ever happened, and certainly the enormous speculative activity in the market today would have been frowned upon.

In those days, the value of goods were expressed in terms of other goods(also called as the Barter System). The obvious limitations of such a system encouraged establishing more generally accepted mediums of exchange. It was important that a common base of value could be established. In some economies, items such as teeth, feathers even stones served this purpose, but soon various metals, in particular gold and silver, established themselves as an accepted means of payment as well as a reliable storage of value. Trade was carried among people of Africa, Asia etc through this system.

Coins were initially minted from the preferred metal and in stable political regimes, the introduction of a paper form of governmental I.O.U. during the Middle Ages also gained acceptance. This type of I.O.U. was introduced more successfully through force than through persuasion and is now the basis of today's modern currencies.

Before the First World war, most Central banks supported their currencies with convertibility to gold. However, the gold exchange standard had its weaknesses of boom-bust patterns. As an economy strengthened, it would import a great deal from out of the country until it ran down its gold reserves required to support its money; as a result, the money supply would diminish, interest rates escalate and economic activity slowed to the point of recession. Ultimately, prices of commodities had hit bottom, appearing attractive to other nations, who would sprint into buying fury that injected the economy with gold until it increased its money supply, drive down interest rates and restore wealth into the economy.. However, for this type of gold exchange, there was not necessarily a Centrals bank need for full coverage of the government's currency reserves. This did not occur very often, however when a group mindset fostered this disastrous notion of converting back to gold in mass, panic resulted in so-called "Run on banks " The combination of a greater supply of paper money without the gold to cover led to devastating inflation and resulting political instability. The Great Depression and the removal of the gold standard in 1931 created a serious lull in Forex market activity. From 1931 until 1973, the Forex market went through a series of changes. These changes greatly affected the global economies at the time and speculation in the Forex markets during these times was little.

In order to protect local national interests, increased foreign exchange controls were introduced to prevent market forces from punishing monetary irresponsibility.

Near the end of World War II, the Bretton Woods agreement was reached on the initiative of the USA in July 1944. The conference held in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire rejected John Maynard Keynes suggestion for a new world reserve currency in favor of a system built on the US Dollar. International institutions such as the IMF, The World Bank and GATT were created in the same period as the emerging victors of WWII searched for a way to avoid the destabilizing monetary crises leading to the war. The Bretton Woods agreement resulted in a system of fixed exchange rates that reinstated The Gold Standard partly, fixing the USD at $35.00 per ounce of Gold and fixing the other main currencies to the dollar, initially intended to be on a permanent basis.

The Bretton Woods system came under increasing pressure as national economies moved in different directions during the 1960's. A number of realignments held the system alive for a long time but eventually Bretton Woods collapsed in the early 1970's following president Nixon's suspension of the gold convertibility in August 1971. The dollar was not any longer suited as the sole international currency at a time when it was under severe pressure from increasing US budget and trade deficits.

The last few decades have seen foreign exchange trading develop into the world's largest global market. Restrictions on capital flows have been removed in most countries, leaving the market forces free to adjust foreign exchange rates according to their perceived values.

The European Economic Community introduced a new system of fixed exchange rates in 1979, the European Monetary System. The quest continued in Europe for currency stability with the 1991 signing of The Maastricht treaty. This was to not only fix exchange rates but also actually replace many of them with the Euro in 2002. London was, and remains the principal offshore market. In the 1980s, it became the key center in the Eurodollar market when British banks began lending dollars as an alternative to pounds in order to maintain their leading position in global finance.

In Asia, the lack of sustainability of fixed foreign exchange rates has gained new relevance with the events in South East Asia in the latter part of 1997, where currency after currency was devalued against the US dollar, leaving other fixed exchange rates in particular in South America also looking very vulnerable.

While commercial companies have had to face a much more volatile currency environment in recent years, investors and financial institutions have discovered a new playground. The Forex exchange market initially worked under the central banks and the governmental institutions but later on it accommodated the various institutions, at present it also includes the dot com booms and the world wide web. The size of the Forex market now dwarfs any other investment market. The foreign exchange market is the largest financial market in the world. Approximately 1.9 trillion dollars are traded daily in the foreign exchange market. It is estimated that more than USD 1,200 Billion are traded every day. It can be said easily that Forex market is a lucrative opportunity for the modern day savvy investor.

Risks of Trading in Forex Market

Although every investment involves some risk, the risk of loss in trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore, if you are considering participating in this market, you should understand some of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision before investing.

As stated in the introduction to this booklet, off-exchange foreign currency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all customers. The only funds that should ever be used to speculate in foreign currency trading, or any type of highly speculative investment, are funds that represent risk capital i.e., funds you can afford to lose without affecting your financial situation. There are other reasons why forex trading may or may not be an appropriate investment for you, and they are highlighted below.

The market could move against you

No one can predict with certainty which way exchange rates will go, and the forex market is volatile. Fluctuations in the foreign exchange rate between the time you place the trade and the time you close it out will affect the price of your forex contract and the potential profit and losses relating to it.

You could lose your entire investment

You will be required to deposit an amount of money (often referred to as a security deposit or margin) with your forex dealer in order to buy or sell an off-exchange forex contract. As discussed earlier, a relatively small amount of money can enable you to hold a forex position worth many times the account value. This is referred to as leverage or gearing. The smaller the deposits in relation to the underlying value of the contract, the greater the leverage. If the price moves in an unfavorable direction, high leverage can produce large losses in relation to your initial deposit. In fact, even a small move against your position may result in a large loss, including the loss of your entire deposit. Depending on your agreement with your dealer, you may also be required to pay additional losses.

Overtrading is another ordinary money management mistake in the forex market. This trading does not have clearly defined trading objectives; the sole reason is to make more money. To avoid this mistake, make sure that every trade is broken into ultimate goals, and that these goals are achieved before other positions are added. Very few traders can successfully manage multiple positions in a variety of currency trading markets.

Overconfidence is a big mistake when it comes to money management and the forex market. This is caused when a trader has or thinks they have particular or inside information. These hot tips are sometimes wrong, and when this happens large amounts of money may be lost because of this. The way to avoid this is to avoid being confident in any rumors or special information you may have. Managing your money means taking measures to preserve it as well.

Preferential bias can exist among forex market traders. This happens when they only see or hear what they want in relative to the favored trade. This can cause a trader to ignore the real activity of the forex market in favorite of what they want to happen. It is important to look at each trade impartially and do not become set in cement with your opinion. Do not ask friends or family for their opinions; just go with what you know.

Source by : http://www.forexarticlecollection.com/forex-trading/learn-forex-trading.htm

Technical Indicator in Forex Trading

4 Types Of Technical Indicator You Need When Trading Forex

If you have any experience in using any kind of charting packages to assist you with your forex trading, you will know that there are endless different technical indicators you can use. In this article I'm going to be asking what are all these indicators and which ones do you really need?

As you can guess from the title of this article, there are essentially four different types of technical indicator and they are as follows:

1.Trend indicators.

MACD, Parabolic SAR and the various moving averages are a few examples of trend indicators and they can all be used to identify a trend. It's widely argued that you should only trade with the trend so all of these indicators will help you to take the decision out of your hands, and therefore dictate which way you should be trading. Your only decision now is at what level to enter the trade.

2.Momentum indicators.

These types of indicators are essentially oscillating indicators and are most useful for determining overbought and oversold positions and can be very useful in signalling the start of a new trend. Examples include RSI, Stochastics and CCI.

3.Volume indicators.

As the name suggests, these types of indicators show the volume of trades behind a particualr price movement which can be extremely beneficial because a price movement backed up by high volume is a much stronger signal than a price movement based on low volume. Examples here include Chaikin Money Flow, Force Index, Money Flow Index and Ease Of Movement.

4.Volatility indicators.

Volatility indicators generally use ranges to show the behaviour of the price and the volume behind any movements. This is useful because any dramatic change in behaviour can provide a good entry signal. Common examples include Bollinger Bands, Average True Range and Envelopes.

So there you have the four different types of technical indicators available to you. Which ones you use is entirely up to you, but it's generally advised that you have at least one type of each in order to provide additional confirmation for entering a trade.

Trading forex using technical analysis is all about probabilities in that when you enter a long position, for example, you want all of your chosen signals to be signalling an upwards movement, therefore indicating a high probability of an upwards movement taking place.

If you use a strict stop loss policy and use these different types of indicators to confirm positions, then over time this high probability trading method should provide you with more winners than losers in the long run.

Talking about Forex Signal Trading

Interested in the forex trading? The forex signal trade is an indispensable part of forex trading mainly because it provides information that is a must in every trader's handbook - what is most profitable in the market today? As we all know, trading is really a bit of gambling. You have the find out when it is most profitable to buy and when it will be most profitable to actually sell what you bought. Without vital information, other traders could beat you to the biggest shares in the market.

Most traders are already experts at what they do and have a pretty good idea of how the market is going to move. For these types of traders, the forex signal trade is an important addition to their trading tools but not necessarily something they will fully rely on. New traders may be interested in companies or individuals who offer forex signal trade training which includes a demo account and proposes effectiveness for even those with little or no experience in forex trading.

However, you may want to check this out as they do not come by cheap. Others wishing to get information on the forex signal trade would rather subscribe to a company who will gladly do the research for them for a monthly fee.

There are also other experienced traders who you can come across offering free forex signal trade information. You may come across one or two of these traders. Just incorporate the information that they offer and also hone your own forex signal trade skills.

Finally the biggest secret with forex trading is having the right tools. See the >> http://www.forexdaytradingprofits.com/software-forex/ available at the moment.

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Rick Williamson - The Global Forex Market

The global Forex market is the largest and most liquid market in the world. One of the primary reasons for the current economic crisis is due to the lack of liquidity in the world's marketplace. Too much money was tied up in long term investments, and the economy could not handle shortage of liquid cash. In the Forex markets, you are simply trading liquid money, so you do not have worry about the contribution of Forex trading in relation to the economic meltdown.

With world's GDP breaking over $65 trillion dollars in the last year, the Forex market is the largest area for profit in the world. You have the opportunity to profit from all $65 trillion dollars due to the different exchange rates between one countries currency and another. You simply capitalize on these exchange rates and enjoy your profits as the market moves in your favor.

Unfortunately, many would-be Forex profiteers do not even give themselves a chance to enjoy a piece of the profit. It is a common misconception that one needs an extensive amount of cash and initial investment to successfully participate in the Forex market. This notion could not be more flawed. In the Forex market, you are able to use what is called a 100 to 1 leverage on the market. This means that for every $1 you invest into the trade, you are, in essence, investing $100. If you were to invest $15 into a currency play that you are sure will turn out in your favor, you will actually profit from $1500 worth of money.

Unlike any of the world's stock markets, the Forex market is never "closed." Even if it is 2am in your current time zone, the Forex market will be open because of the fact that Forex is thriving global market. By using this seemingly trivial fact, many investors make money 24 hours a day from their investments. While are in bed sleeping, their Forex investments continue to profit due to the fact that there is always an open market. Experienced Forex traders are able to play upon the opening surges or dips of global markets, by therefore leveraging their money for or against a certain exchange rate.

Since the Forex market is open 24 hours a day, it is constantly evolving and therefore passes right over many would-be investors. Don't allow yourself to be left in the dust of the Forex market. Jump into the market and start profiting today

Technical Indicators Forex Trading with Stochastics

Stochastics are amongst the most popular technical indicators when it comes to Forex Trading. Unfortunately most traders use them incorrectly. In this article we will review the correct way to use this popular technical indicator.

George Lane developed this indicator in the late 1950s. Stochastics measure the current close relative to the range (high/low) over a set of periods.

Stochastics consist of two lines:

%K - Is the main line and is usually displayed as a solid line
%D - Is simply a moving average of the %K and is usually displayed as a dotted line

There are three types of Stochastics: Full, fast and slow stochastics. Slow stochastics are simply a smother version of the fast stochastics, and full stochastics are even a smother version of the slow stochastics.

Interpretation:

Buy when %K falls below the oversold level (below 20) and rises back above the same level.

Sell when %K rises above de overbought level (above 80) and falls back below the same level.

The interpretation above is how most traders and investors use them; however, it only works when the market is trendless or ranging. When the market is trending, a reading above the overbought territory isn't necessary a bearish signal, while a reading below de oversold territory isn't necessary bullish signal.

Trending market

When the market is trending is necessary to adapt the oscillator to the same conditions: When the market is trending up, then the signals with the higher probability of success are those in direction of the trend "Buy signals", on the other hand when the market is trending down, selling signals offer the lowest risk opportunities.

Thus when the market is trending up, we will only look for oversold conditions (when the stochastics fall below the oversold level [below 20] and rises back above the same level) to get ready to trade, and in the same way, when the market is trending down we will only look for overbought conditions (when the stochastics rise above de overbought level [above 80] and falls back below the same level.

Taking all overbought/oversold signals during a trending market will lead us to many whipsaws. If you are not comfortable with the number of signals given, try expanding your trading to other currency pairs.

Trend-less market

During a ranging market we could use the interpretation explained above to trade off stochastics.

Divergence

Divergence trades are amongst the most reliable trading signals in the Forex market. A divergence occurs either when the indicator reaches new highs/lows and the market fails to do it or the market reaches new highs/lows and the indicator fails to do it. Both conditions mean that the market isn't as strong as it used to be giving us opportunities to profit from the market.
Stochastics can also be used to trade off divergences.

Price behavior

A price behavior can be incorporated into any kind of system or Forex strategy. When using divergences or overbought/oversold condition with a price behavior approach, the probability of success of our signals increases enormously. Why? Because price dictates at the end, how all indicators will behave, it also gives us a lot of information about the probable direction it will take in the future

Forex Market Update - Forex Strategy Today's

By John Hardy Consultant/FX Strategist Saxo Bank

GBP breaking stronger vs. EUR and CHF after BOE cuts to 1.00%. ECB steady at 2.00% as expected.

JPY crosses zigging and zagging with no real conviction - should JPY longs be cautious here?

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION

* New Zealand Q4 Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6% as expected and vs. 4.2% in Q3

* UK HBOS house Prices rose 1.9% MoM vs. -1.6% expected

* Germany Dec. Factory orders fell -6.9% MoM and -25.1% YoY vs. -2.5%/-24.5% expected

* Bank of England cut interest rates 50 bps to bring the rate to 1.00% as expected.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION

Events Today:

* Canada Dec. Building Permits (1330)

* US Q4 Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs (1330)

* US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (1330)

* US Fed's Plosser to Speak (1330)

* Canada Jan. Ivey PMI (1500)

* US Dec. Factory Orders (1500)

* US Jan. ICSC Chain Store Sales (no time given)

* Switzerland SNB's Hilebrand to Speak (1730)

* Us Fed's Bullard to Speak (1800)

* US Fed's Stern to speak (1900)

* Australia Jan. AiG Performance of Construction Index

* Japan Dec. Leading Index (0500)

* Switzerland Jan. Unemployment Rate (0645)

Market Comment:

Equities tried to stage a rally yesterday as the ISM Non-manufacturing number recovered a couple of points rather then sinking further. Still, the number represents a service sector in strong contraction, and services are still the majority of the US economy. Also on a positive note, the ADP number was slightly less bad than expected. But the numbers were not sufficient for the market to really hang its hat on and the rally in risk crosses quickly faded later in the North American session.

GBP followed up stronger versus its European counterparts yesterday and this morning ahead of the Bank of England meeting. The Bank cut 50 basis points as expected, bringing the rate to a new record low of 1.00%. As a small minority were looking for a 100-basis point reduction in rates, the news can be considered marginally GBP-positive, all else being equal. The immediate reaction saw the 0.8800 key support level coming under fire and even falling as this is being written ahead of the ECB press conference. The BoE also released a series of statements indicating its negative view on the situation, but did note that the drop in the pound and existing fiscal policy should help to give a boost to the economy, even if "the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy was impaired" [and if that is the case, then the market starts to ponder the whole quantitative easing line of logic]. All in all, this latter note suggests some degree of applying the brakes to the otherwise dovish trajectory and with GBP pushing through key levels, could be triggering a sustainable uptick in GBP against the other major currencies.

Also GBP supportive was the odd Nationwide housing numbers from December, which suggested that UK home prices ticked up in December even if they were still off over 17% from a year earlier. This could simply be due to a rise in activity due to the lower prices, a bit less panic in the forced sales market, etc...rather than a sign of imminent recovery. Still, the shocking pace of the previous drop may not be repeated any time soon, and the leading RICS indicator suggest that a lower percentage of agents are seeing housing prices falling, so we could be in for a couple of months of relative stability.

The ECB left rates unchanged as expected as today's meeting came only three weeks after the previous one. Watch Trichet for further developments. He is likely going to express a reluctance to move rates much lower, but that the ECB will do what is necessary...etc and yawn...As with last time around for the ECB: is there really any EUR bullish outcome?

JPY crosses are looking less heavy than one would have suspected they would with the marked weakness in equity land late yesterday. In the broader picture, considering the mayhem that this global slowdown is creating for Japan's export-driven economy, we are considering noting some caution for JPY longs here, meaning that we need to see the crosses proving themselves lower before we would consider jumping aboard, as it seems they are having a difficult time working up a head of steam. GBPJPY, one of the most popular trades (on the short side) in the strong JPY cycle, has now rallied almost 10% from its lows on the year below 120.00. AUD and NZD and some of the EM currencies are looking a bit resilient here as well and risk spreads are simply in the doldrums. With the fear levels seeming to fade somewhat, it appears that back and forth sloshing and a treacherous ranging environment with false breaks is as likely as a new big bear trend here in the risk aversion-themed FX crosses....stay tuned and watch the 800 level in S&P500, as this is a big trigger event across markets.

NOK continues to look strong after the bank cut rates 50 bps yesterday, a marked sign of strength in this market as we suspected there was some chance of a consolidation higher yesterday in the wake of the Norges Bank meeting. Could we be hitting a fifth wave already for the decline from the 10+ top? If so, this wave could take us all the way to 8.50, where the 200-day moving average might be in a few days time from its current 8.475 level

More analysis: Saxo Bank Market News & Analysis

Risk Warnings:

Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Effective Strategies in Forex

Starting out in the Forex world of trading can be quiet daunting. So we have put together some of the most powerful strategies to help your forex trading.

So you are serious about profiting in forex trading, then you need to watch forex trends which are short term.

Here we are going to give you a 3 step simple method which if you use it correctly, will help you catch every superior forex trend and lead you to long-term term currency dealing success.

New and inexperienced traders don't try to follow the trend for forex lengthier term - instead they try forex scalping or day trading hoping to grab short term profit. These methods focus the trader on small moves and they hope to catch small profit however as most short term moves are random, this leads to equity eliminate.

Also make sure you are using the Best Forex Broker

The other alternatives are swing trading and long term forex trend following and this article is all about the latter method. If you look at any forex chart, you will see long-term term trends that last for months or years. These moves can and do yield serious profit - present we will outline a simple method to get them.

Breakouts

By far the best way of catching the serious moves is to use a forex dealing strategy based around breakouts. A breakout is simply a move on a forex chart where a new high or low is made and resistance or support is broken.

It's a fact that most leading moves start from new highs or lows.

While it might appear that you are not buying or selling at the greatest level, you are in terms of the odds of the trend continuing. Most forex traders make the mistake of waiting for the breakout to come back and get in at a better price but these traders never get on board. The grounds for this is if a breakout occurs, then you have a new strong trend and a pullback is not very likely to occur.

Most traders don't buy or sell breakouts and that's exactly why it's such a powerful method.

The only point to keep in mind is a support or resistance which is ruined, should be valid and that means at least 3 points in at least 2 different times frames. The more tests and the greater the spacing between the tests the more valid the level is.

Confirmation

Of course not every breakout keeps and some reverse, these are false and can cause losses. You therefore need to confirm each move. All you need to do to achieve this is to put a few momentum indicators in your forex trading system to confirm your dealing signal.

These indicators give you an estimation of the strength and velocity of price and there are many to choose from. We don't have time to discuss them here (simply look up our other articles) but two of the greatest are - the stochastic and Relative Strength Index RSI

Stops and Targets

Stop points are easy with breakouts - Simply behind the breakout point.

If you have a serious trend then you need to be careful you can milk it, so don't move your stop to soon and keep it outside of normal volatility. If it is a huge move, trailing stops should be held a long-term way back and the 40 day moving average is a good level to use.

You have to keep in mind that when the trend does eventually turn you are going to give some profit back. You don't know when the trend is going to end, so don't predict.

It's ok to give a serious back, as that's the nature of trading forex. Keep in mind if you got 50% of all leading trend you would be very rich. When you are long-term term trend following you have accept giving a bit back and taking dips in open equity as the trend develops - this is noise and does not affect the long term trend.

The above is a simple way to trend watch forex and catch the high odds moves that yield the serious profit. If you are learning forex dealing and want a simple method that is robust and will help you get every major move, then you should base your dealing on the above method.

Tips For Choosing a Reputable Forex Broker

Finding a Forex broker is a tough process to navigate through and for most people, the necessity of outside assistance is needed. Trying to trade in the Forex market without a broker could lead to devastating results for the normal trader. Similarly, hiring the wrong Forex broker can lead to the same result as trying to muddle through it alone. It is highly important that you be diligent in researching any prospective brokerage firms to handle your financial portfolio.

A good Forex broker will supply you with clients that were successful and can attest to the specific broker's qualifications and success history. Put yourself in that position, would you testify to someone's strengths if they did a poor job for you? Client history testimony should be present in any prospective Forex broker and plentiful to indicate a solid background with trading. You can tentatively assess a lot from a Forex broker with a list of clients that will speak up for the brokerage firm or individual broker. It should be noted that all word of mouth testimony should be taken with a grain of salt and dissected to collect the pertinent information. Testimony should be used in your research to find a Forex broker but should not be the deciding factor.

Another good morsel to test the reliability of any potential Forex broker is the amount of information, literature and lessons that they are willing to give to you. Most Forex brokers are of a high reputation and a solid background however, there are many out there that don't have a good history or no history and it is wise to steer clear of these brokers. You are trying to find a trusted financial advisor and settling for second best, just won't do. The more a potential Forex broker is willing to do for you in the area of helping you understand the Forex trading system, the better quality trader they will be for you.

A good avenue to travel down when seeking a good Forex broker is to ask your acquaintances about Forex brokers and how they met. This can not only give you prospective referrals to great Forex brokers but will also equip you with ideas and resources that you may not have located. If you get a referral from friends, be sure to still research that specific broker and his qualifications before committing to any formal agreement.

The other factor in finding a good Forex broker is the margin of return that is offered. A Forex trading margin used to influence your money and many Forex brokers offer different margins. Finding a Forex broker, who gives a margin of ten to one isn't a very good find so it's worth the time to reinvest in research. Remember that this industry is all about customer service and catering to the clients so if your prospective Forex broker doesn't return your calls within a reasonable time frame it would be advisable to keep searching.

How To Choose A FOREX Broker ?

Most investors who trade Forex stocks use a broker. A broker is an individual or a company, who buys and sells stocks according to the investor's wishes. Brokers earn money by collecting commissions or fees for their services.

You should check that a broker is registered as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as protection against fraud or abusive trade practices. A Forex broker also needs to be associated with a financial institution, such as a bank in order to provide funds for margin trading. Picking the right Forex broker for you will take some work on your part. There are brokers who charge a flat fee and some that charge commission. It may be a good idea to talk with friends and business associates about their brokers. You may get some good leads, and you're certain to hear who to stay away from. There is nothing like word of mouth advertising.

If you are thinking of investing online, you could choose several online brokers and contact their help desks. Seeing how quickly they respond to your questions could be key in how they will respond to their customers needs. If you don't get a speedy reply and a satisfactory answer to your question you certainly wouldn't want to trust them with your business. Just be aware that as in other types of businesses, pre sales service might be better than after sales service.

Before you choose an online broker get a copy of their online demo account. What features are included? Is the software reliable? Does it offer automatic trading? Are there extra software features that cost more?

Before setting up an account with a Forex broker you will need to do further investigation. How quickly will these brokers execute your buy/sell orders? What is their policy on slippage? What are the transaction fees? What is the spread, fixed or variable? What are the margin requirements and how are they calculated? Does the margin change with currency traded? Is it the same for mini accounts and standard accounts?

Don't forget to ask about minimum account balances and interest payments on account balances. Make sure that your funds will be insured.

FOREX BROKER - How To Pay Your Forex Broker

The forex market, unlike other exchange driven markets, has a unique feature that many market makers use to entice traders to trade. They promise no exchange fees or regulatory fees, no data fees and, best of all, no commissions. To the new trader just wanting to break into the trading business, this sounds too good to be true. Trading without transaction costs is clearly an advantage. However, what might sound like a bargain to inexperienced traders may not be the best deal available - or even a deal at all. Here we'll show you how to evaluate forex broker fee/commission structures and find the one that will work best for you.

Commission Structures
There are three forms of commission used by brokers in forex. Some firms offer a fixed spread, others offer a variable spread and still others charge a commission based on a percentage of the spread. So which is the best choice? At first glance, it seems that the fixed spread may be the right choice, because then you would know exactly what to expect. However, before you jump in and choose one, there are a few things you need to consider.

The spread is the difference between the price the market maker is prepared to pay you for buying the currency (the bid price), versus the price at which he is prepared to sell you the currency (the ask price). Suppose you see the following quotes on your screen: "EURUSD - 1.4952 - 1.4955." This represents a spread of three pips, the difference between the bid price of 1.4952 and the ask price of 1.4955. If you are dealing with a market maker who is offering a fixed spread of three pips instead of a variable spread, the difference will always be three pips, regardless of market volatility.

In the case of a broker who offers a variable spread, you can expect a spread that will, at times, be as low as 1.5 pips or as high as five pips, depending on the currency pair being traded and the level of market volatility.

Some brokers may also charge a very small commission, perhaps two-tenths of one pip, and then will pass the order flow received from you on to a large market maker with whom he or she has a relationship. In such an arrangement, you can receive a very tight spread that only larger traders could otherwise access.

Different Brokers, Different Levels of Service
So what is the bottom line effect of each type of commission on your trading? Given that all brokers are not created equal, this is a difficult question to answer. The reason is that there are other factors to take into account when weighing what is most advantageous for your trading account.

For example, not all brokers are able to make a market equally. The forex market is an over-the-counter market, which means that banks, the primary market makers, have relationships with other banks and price aggregators (retail online brokers), based on the capitalization and creditworthiness of each organization. There are no guarantors or exchanges involved, just the credit agreement between each player. So, when it comes to an online market maker, for example, your broker's effectiveness will depend on his or her relationship with banks, and how much volume the broker does with them. Usually, the higher-volume forex players are quoted tighter spreads.

If your market maker has a strong relationship with a line of banks and can aggregate, say, twelve banks' price quotes, then the brokerage firm will be able to pass the average bid and ask on to its retail customers. Even after slightly widening the spread to account for profit, the dealer will be able to pass a more competitive spread on to you than competitors that are not well capitalized.

If you are dealing with a broker that can offer guaranteed liquidity at attractive spreads, this may be what you should look for. On the other hand, you might want to pay a fixed pip spread if you know you are getting at-the-money executions every time you trade. Slippage, which occurs when your trade is executed away from the price you were offered, is a cost that you do not want to bear.

In the case of a commission broker, whether you should pay a small commission depends on what else the broker is offering. For example, suppose your broker charges you a small commission, usually in the order of two-tenths of one pip, or about $2.50 - $3 per 100,000 unit trade, but in exchange offers you access to a proprietary software platform that is superior to most online brokers' platforms, or some other benefit. In this case, it may be worth paying the small commission for this additional service.

Choosing a Forex Broker
As a trader, you should always consider the total package when deciding on a broker, in addition to the type of spreads the broker offers. For example, some brokers may offer excellent spreads but their platforms may not have all the bells and whistles that are offered by competitors. When choosing a brokerage firm, you should check out the following:

* How well capitalized is the firm?
* How long has it been in business?
* Who manages the firm and how much experience does this person have?
* Which and how many banks does the firm have relationships with?
* How much volume does it transact each month?
* What are its liquidity guarantees in terms of order size?
* What is its margin policy?
* What is its rollover policy in case you want to hold your positions overnight?
* Does the firm pass through the positive carry, if there is one?
* Does the firm add a spread to the rollover interest rates?
* What kind of platform does it offer?
* Does it have multiple order types, such as "order cancels order" or "order sends order"?
* Does it guarantee to execute your stop losses at the order price?
* Does the firm have a dealing desk?
* What do you do if your internet connection is lost and you have an open position?
* Does the firm provide all the back-end office functions, such as P&L, in real time?

Conclusion
Even though you might think you are getting a deal when paying a variable spread, you may be sacrificing other benefits. But one thing is certain: As a trader you always pay the spread and your broker always earns the spread. To get the best deal possible, choose a reputable broker who is well capitalized and has strong relationships with the large foreign exchange banks. Examine the spreads on the most popular currencies. Very often, they will be as little as 1.5 pips. If this is the case, a variable spread may work out to be cheaper than a fixed spread. Some brokers even offer you the choice of either a fixed spread or a variable one. In the end, the cheapest way to trade is with a very reputable market maker who can provide the liquidity you need to trade well

Successfull Trading Rules - By: Lyndsay Wilkinson

As a successful Trader and having spoken to many other successful traders I noticed that we had many ideas in common. We all had rules that we followed and believed to be necessary to remain successful.

Successfull Trading Rules:

#1 Rule :"Risk Reward Ratio"

Basically what I mean is dont take a large risk to make a very small profit. Understanding your risk/reward ratio is very important (the risk compared to how much reward (profit) you will make).An example of a trade with a 4:1 risk reward is if you have a stop in place so the maximum you could lose (risk) is $1000 and your limit order allows for a profit (reward) of $4000.

Always consider the risk reward factor before placing a trade. Most good traders would look at a 2:1 ratio, your potential profit being twice your potential loss. When working out your trading always take the spread into consideration, where you place a stop and where you place an exit order. Working out your risk reward ratio is a simple formula. I will give you an example.

Currency Pair EUR/USD. Buying # 1 lot Entry price 1.3330 Stop 1.3310 Target 1.3372 Loss 20 pips Profit 40 pips (net after spread of 2) Ratio 2:1

If the system you are using indicates where the entry and exit points are and a ratio of 1.5:1 is not realistic it is better not to take the trade and wait for the next opportunity.

#2 :"Always Trade with a Stop Loss"

Before you place a Trade it is important to realize that even with a winning system you WILL have LOSING Trades. The decision on when to close the Trade must be made before you place your Trade, it can then be made without emotion and it will be easier to stick with your Plan (This is a must).The idea is to gain Maximum Profit and Minimize your Loss.

When you place an order you can manually select when the trade is going to end. To do this you state how far you will let the trade run at a loss before the trade ends. This is called a "Stop Loss Order". Basically this means if the trade goes against you, you can control your loss. This is a common way to safe guard against heavy losses.

There is always a down side to using stop loss orders. It is too easy to focus on reducing your possible losses so if there is a small change in the direction of your trade you will be cut out with a small loss and you will also be charged the spread, often the trade changes back to the direction you had anticipated which then runs on and would have given a nice profit.

If you are trading in short time frames and finding yourself being stopped out after small losses you will be surprised at how quickly the broker's cost (spread) can mount up over a month. Therefore it is extremely important to either use a system that will guide you where to place your stop loss or to understand exactly where to place your "Stop Loss" and the consequences of it. Sometimes allowing for a slightly larger loss before being stopped out will give you more successful results.

Some of the systems being offered are suggesting that you dont use a stop loss to prevent the frustrating situation when you are stopped out and the trade changes quickly back and goes on to offer hugh pip gains. This alternative can wipe out your margin and I would not suggest it unless you have a very large margin and you are prepared to monitor the trade and wait if the trade goes against you. AS I say not the way I would suggest.

Every trader has to have an individual strategy and rules they are prepared to stay with. Today there are software programs you can buy that will assist you with these decisions.

I hope you found this information helpful and I wish you good luck with your trading

Risks by The Foreign Exchange on Forex Trading

The Forex is essentially risk-bearing. By the evaluation of the grade of a possible risk accounted should be the following kinds of it: exchange rate risk, interest rate risk, and credit risk, country risk.

Exchange rate risk. Exchange rate risk is the effect of the continuous shift in the worldwide market supply and demand balance on an outstanding foreign exchange position. For the period it is outstanding, the position will be subject to all the price changes. The most popular measures to cut losses short and ride profitable positions that losses should be kept within manageable limits are the position limit and the loss limit. By the position limitation a maximum amount of a certain currency a trader is allowed to carry at any single time during the regular trading hours is to be established. The loss limit is a measure designed to avoid unsustainable losses made by traders by means of stop-loss levels setting.

Interest rate risk. Interest rate risk refers to the profit and loss generated by fluctuations in the forward spreads, along with forward amount mismatches and maturity gaps among transactions in the foreign exchange book. This risk is pertinent to currency swaps, forward outright, futures, and options (See below). To minimize interest rate risk, one sets limits on the total size of mismatches. A common approach is to separate the mismatches, based on their maturity dates, into up to six months and past six months. All the transactions are entered in computerized systems in order to calculate the positions for all the dates of the delivery, gains and losses. Continuous analysis of the interest rate environment is necessary to forecast any changes that may impact on the outstanding gaps.

Credit risk. Credit risk refers to the possibility that an outstanding currency position may not be repaid as agreed, due to a voluntary or involuntary action by a counter party. In these cases, trading occurs on regulated exchanges, such as the clearinghouse of Chicago. The following forms of credit risk are known:

1. Replacement risk occurs when counterparties of the failed bank find their books are subjected to the danger not to get refunds from the bank, where appropriate accounts became unbalanced.

2. Settlement risk occurs because of the time zones on different continents. Consequently, currencies may be traded at the different price at different times during the trading day. Australian and New Zealand dollars are credited first, then Japanese yen, followed by the European currencies and ending with the U.S. dollar. Therefore, payment may be made to a party that will declare insolvency (or be declared insolvent) immediately after, but prior to executing its own payments.

Therefore in assessing the credit risk, end users must consider not only the market value of their currency portfolios, but also the potential exposure of these portfolios. The potential exposure may be determined through probability analysis over the time to maturity of the outstanding position. The computerized systems currently available are very useful in implementing credit risk policies. Credit lines are easily monitored. In addition, the matching systems introduced in foreign exchange since April 1993 are used by traders for credit policy implementation as well. Traders input the total line of credit for a specific counterparty. During the trading session, the line of credit is automatically adjusted. If the line is fully used, the system will prevent the trader from further dealing with that counterparty. After maturity, the credit line reverts to its original level.

Dictatorship risk. Dictatorship (sovereign) risk refers to the government's interference in the Forex activity. Although theoretically present in all foreign exchange instruments, currency futures are, for all practical purposes, excepted from country risk, because the major currency futures markets are located in the USA. Hence, traders have to realize that kind of the risk and be in state to account possible administrative restrictions

Mistakes in a Trading Environment

When it comes to trading, one of the most neglected subjects are those dealing with trading psychology. Most traders spend days, months and even years trying to find the right system. But having a system is just part of the game. Don’t get us wrong, it is very important to have a system that perfectly suits the trader, but it is as important as having a money management plan, or to understand all psychology barriers that may affect the trader decisions and other issues. In order to succeed in this business, there must be equilibrium between all important aspects of trading.

In the trading environment, when you lose a trade, what is the first idea that pops up in your mind? It would probably be, “There must be something wrong with my system”, or “I knew it, I shouldn’t have taken this trade” (even when your system signaled it). But sometimes we need to dig a little deeper in order to see the nature of our mistake, and then work on it accordingly.

When it comes to trading the Forex market as well as other markets, only 5% of traders achieve the ultimate goal: to be consistent in profits. What is interesting though is that there is just a tiny difference between this 5% of traders and the rest of them. The top 5% grow from mistakes; mistakes are a learning experience, they learn an invaluable lesson on every single mistake made. Deep in their minds, a mistake is one more chance to try it harder and do it better the next time, because they know they might not get a chance the next time. And at the end, this tiny difference becomes THE big difference.

Mistakes in the trading environment

Most of us relate a trading mistake to the outcome (in terms of money) of any given trade. The truth is, a mistake has nothing to do with it, mistakes are made when certain guidelines are not followed. When the rules you trade by are violated. Take for instance the following scenarios:

First scenario: The system signals a trade.

Signal taken and trade turns out to be a profitable trade.
Outcome of the trade: Positive, made money.
Experience gained: Its good to follow the system, if I do this consistently the odds will turn in my favor. Confidence is gained in both the trader and the system.
Mistake made: None.

Signal taken and trade turns out to be a loosing trade.
Outcome of the trade: Negative, lost money.
Experience gained: It is impossible to win every single trade, a loosing trade is just part of the business; our raw material, we know we can’t get them all right. Even with this lost trade, the trader is proud about himself for following the system. Confidence in the trader is gained.
Mistake made: None.

Signal not taken and trade turns out to be a profitable trade.
Outcome of the trade: Neutral.
Experience gained: Frustration, the trader always seems to get in trades that turned out to be loosing trades and let the profitable trades go away. Confidence is lost in the trader self.
Mistake made: Not taking a trade when the system signaled it.

Signal not taken and trade turns out to be a loosing trade.
Outcome of the trade: Neutral.
Experience gained: The trader will start to think “hey, I’m better than my system”. Even if the trader doesn't think on it consciously, the trader will rationalize on every signal given by the system because deep in his or her mind, his or her “feeling” is more intelligent than the system itself. From this point on, the trader will try to outguess the system. This mistake has catastrophic effects on our confidence to the system. The confidence on the trader turns into overconfidence.
Mistake made: Not taking a trade when system signaled it

Second Scenario: System does not signal a trade.
No trade is taken
Outcome of the trade: Neutral
Experience gained: Good discipline, we only need to take trades when the odds are in our favor, just when the system signals it. Confidence gained in both the trader self and the system.
Mistake made: None

A trade is taken, turns out to be a profitable trade.
Outcome of the trade: Positive, made money.
Experience gained: This mistake has the most catastrophic effects in the trader self, the system and most importantly in the trader’s trading career. You will start to think you need no system, you know better from them all. From this point on, you will start to trade based on what you think. Confidence in the system is totally lost. Confidence in the trader self turns into overconfidence.
Mistake made: Take a trade when there was no signal from the system.

A trade is taken, turned out to be a loosing trade.
Outcome of the trade: negative, lost money.
Experience gained: The trader will rethink his strategy. The next time, the trader will think it twice before getting in a trade when the system does not signal it. The trader will go “Ok, it is better to get in the market when my system signals it, only those trade have a higher probability of success”. Confidence is gained in the system.
Mistake made: Take a trade when there was no signal from the system

As you can see, there is absolutely no correlation between the outcome of the trade and a mistake. The most catastrophic mistake even has a positive trade outcome, made money, but this could be the beginning of the end of the trader’s career. As we have already stated, mistakes must only be related to the violation of rules a trader trades by.

All these mistakes were directly related to the signals given by a system, but the same is applied when getting out of a trade. There are also mistakes related to following a trading plan. For example, risking more money on a given trade than the amount the trader should have risked and many more.

Most mistakes can be avoided by first having a trading plan. A trading plan includes the system: the criteria we use to get in and out the market, the money management plan: how much we will risk on any given trade, and many other points. Secondly, and most important, we need to have the discipline to follow strictly our plan. We created our plan when no trade was placed on, thus no psychology barriers were up front. So, the only thing we are certain about is that if we follow our plan, the decision taken is on our best interests, and in the long run, these decisions will help us have better results. We don’t have to worry about isolated events, or trades that could had give us better results at first, but then they could have catastrophic results in our trading career.

How to deal with mistakes

There are many possible ways to properly manage mistakes. We will suggest the one that works better for us.

Step one: Belief change.

Every mistake is a learning experience. They all have something valuable to offer. Try to counteract the natural tendency of feeling frustrated and approach mistakes in a positive manner. Instead of yelling to everyone around and feeling disappointed, say to yourself “ok, I did something wrong, what happened? What is it?

Step two: Identify the mistake made.

Define the mistake, find out what caused the mistake, and try as hard as you can to effectively see the nature of that mistake. Finding the mistake nature will prevent you from making the same mistake again. More than often you will find the answer where you less expected. Take for instance a trader that doesn’t follow the system. The reason behind this could be that the trader is afraid of loosing. But then, why is he or she afraid? It could be that the trader is using a system that does not fit him or her, and finds difficult to follow every signal. In this case, as you can see, the nature of the mistake is not in the surface. You need to try as hard as you can to find the real reason of the given mistake.

Step three: Measure the consequences of the mistake.

List the consequences of making that particular mistake, both good and bad. Good consequences are those that make us better traders after dealing with the mistake. Think on all possible reasons you can learn from what happened. For the same example above, what are the consequences of making that mistake? Well, if you don’t follow the system, you will gradually loose confidence in it, and this at the end will put you into trades you don’t really want to be, and out of trades you should be in.

Step four: Take action.

Taking proper action is the last and most important step. In order to learn, you need to change your behavior. Make sure that whatever you do, you become “this-mistake-proof”. By taking action we turn every single mistake into a small part of success in our trading career. Continuing with the same example, redefining the system would be the trader’s final step. The trader would put a system that perfectly fits him or her, so the trader doesn’t find any trouble following it in future signals.

Understanding the fact that the outcome of any trade has nothing to do with a mistake will open your mind to other possibilities, where you will be able to understand the nature of every mistake made. This at the same time will open the doors for your trading career as you work and take proper action on every mistake made.

The process of success is slow, and plenty of times it is attributed to repeated mistakes made and the constant struggle to get past these mistakes, working on them accordingly. How we deal with them will shape our future as a trader, and most importantly as a person.

The Five-Minute Forex "Momo" Trade by: Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg

Some traders are extremely patient and love to wait for the perfect setup while others are extremely impatient and need to see a move happen quickly or they'll abandon their positions. These impatient traders make perfect momentum traders because they wait for the market to have enough strength to push a currency in the desired direction and piggyback on the momentum in the hope of an extension move. However, once the move shows signs of losing strength, an impatient momentum trader will also be the first to jump ship. Therefore, a true momentum strategy needs to have solid exit rules to protect profits while still being able to ride as much of the extension move as possible.

In this article, we'll take a look at strategy that does just that: the Five-Minute Momo Trade.

What's a Momo?

The Five Minute Momo Trade looks for a momentum or "momo" burst on very short-term (five-minute) charts. First, traders lay on two indicators, the first of which is the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA). The EMA is chosen over the simple moving average because it places higher weight on recent movements, which is needed for fast momentum trades. The moving average is used to help determine the trend. The second indicator to use is the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, which helps us gauge momentum. The settings for the MACD histogram is the default, which is first EMA = 12, second EMA = 26, signal EMA = 9, all using the close price. (For more insight, read A Primer On The MACD.)

This strategy waits for a reversal trade but only takes advantage of it when momentum supports the reversal move enough to create a larger extension burst. The position is exited in two separate segments; the first half helps us lock in gains and ensures that we never turn a winner into a loser. The second half lets us attempt to catch what could become a very large move with no risk because the stop has already been moved to breakeven.

Rules for a Long Trade

1. Look for currency pair trading below the 20-period EMA and MACD to be negative.
2. Wait for price to cross above the 20-period EMA, then make sure that MACD is either in the process of crossing from negative to positive or has crossed into positive territory no longer than five bars ago.
3. Go long 10 pips above the 20-period EMA.
4. For an aggressive trade, place a stop at the swing low on the five-minute chart. For a conservative trade, place a stop 20 pips below the 20-period EMA.
5. Sell half of the position at entry plus the amount risked; move the stop on the second half to breakeven.
6. Trail the stop by breakeven or the 20-period EMA minus 15 pips, whichever is higher.

Rules for a Short Trade

1. Look for the currency pair to be trading above the 20-period EMA and MACD to be positive.
2. Wait for the price to cross below the 20-period EMA; make sure that MACD is either in the process of crossing from positive to negative or crossed into negative territory no longer than five bars ago.
3. Go short 10 pips below the 20-period EMA.
4. For an aggressive trade, place stop at the swing high on a five-minute chart. For a conservative trade, place the stop 20 pips above 20-period EMA
5. Buy back half of the position at entry minus the amount risked and move the stop on the second half to breakeven.
6. Trail stop by lower of breakeven or 20-period EMA plus 15 pips

Long Trades

Figure 1: Five-Minute Momo Trade, EUR/USD

Source: FXtrek Intellichart

Our first example in Figure 1 is the EUR/USD on March 16, 2006, when we see the price move above the 20-period EMA as the MACD histogram crosses above the zero line. Although there were a few instances of the price attempting to move above the 20-period EMA between 1:30 and 2:00 EST, a trade was not triggered at that time because the MACD histogram was below the zero line.

We waited for the MACD histogram to cross the zero line and when it did, the trade was triggered at 1.2044. We enter at 1.2046 + 10 pips = 1.2056 with a stop at 1.2046 - 20 pips = 1.2026. Our first target was 1.2056 + 30 pips = 1.2084. It was triggered approximately two and a half hours later. We exit half of the position and trail the remaining half by the 20-period EMA minus 15 pips. The second half is eventually closed at 1.2157 at 21:35 EST for a total profit on the trade of 65.5 pips.

Figure 2: Five-Minute Momo Trade, USD/JPY

The next example, shown in Figure 2, is USD/JPY on March 21, 2006, when we see the price move above the 20-period EMA. Like in the previous EUR/USD example, there were also a few instances in which the price crossed above the 20-period EMA right before our entry point, but we did not take the trade because the MACD histogram was below the zero line.

The MACD turned first, so we waited for the price to cross the EMA by 10 pips and when it did, we entered the trade at 116.67 (EMA was at 116.57).

The math is a bit more complicated on this one. The stop is at the 20-EMA minus 20 pips or 116.57 - 20 pips = 116.37. The first target is entry plus the amount risked, or 116.67 + (116.67-116.37) = 116.97. It gets triggered five minutes later. We exit half of the position and trail the remaining half by the 20-period EMA minus 15 pips. The second half is eventually closed at 117.07 at 18:00 EST for a total average profit on the trade of 35 pips. Although the profit was not as attractive as the first trade, the chart shows a clean and smooth move that indicates that price action conformed well to our rules.

Short Trades
On the short side, our first example is the NZD/USD on March 20, 2006 (Figure 3). We see the price cross below the 20-period EMA, but the MACD histogram is still positive, so we wait for it to cross below the zero line 25 minutes later. Our trade is then triggered at 0.6294. Like the earlier USD/JPY example, the math is a bit messy on this one because the cross of the moving average did not occur at the same time as when MACD moved below the zero line like it did in our first EUR/USD example. As a result, we enter at 0.6294.

Our stop is the 20-EMA plus 20 pips. At the time, the 20-EMA was at 0.6301, so that puts our entry at 0.6291 and our stop at 0.6301 + 20pips = 0.6321. Our first target is the entry price minus the amount risked or 0.6291 - (0.6321-0.6291) = 0.6261. The target is hit two hours later and the stop on the second half is moved to breakeven. We then proceed to trail the second half of the position by the 20-period EMA plus 15 pips. The second half is then closed at 0.6262 at 7:10 EST for a total profit on the trade of 29.5 pips.

Figure 3: Five-Minute Momo Trade, NZD/USD

The example in Figure 4 is based on an opportunity that developed on March 10, 2006, in the GBP/USD. In the chart below, the price crosses below the 20-period EMA and we wait for 10 minutes for the MACD histogram to move into negative territory, thereby triggering our entry order at 1.7375. Based on the rules above, as soon as the trade is triggered, we put our stop at the 20-EMA plus 20 pips or 1.7385 + 20 = 1.7405. Our first target is the entry price minus the amount risked, or 1.7375 - (1.7405 - 1.7375) = 1.7345. It gets triggered shortly thereafter. We then proceed to trail the second half of the position by the 20-period EMA plus 15 pips. The second half of the position is eventually closed at 1.7268 at 14:35 EST for a total profit on the trade of 68.5 pips. Coincidently enough, the trade was also closed at the exact moment when the MACD histogram flipped into positive territory.

Figure 4: Five-Minute Momo Trade, GBP/USD

Momo Trade Failure
As you can see, the Five Minute Momo Trade is an extremely powerful strategy to capture momentum-based reversal moves. However, it does not always work and it is important to explore an example of where it fails and to understand why this happens.

Figure 5: Five-Minute Momo Trade, EUR/CHF

The final example of the Five Minute Momo Trade is EUR/CHF on March 21, 2006. In Figure 5, the price crosses below the 20-period EMA and we wait for 20 minutes for the MACD histogram to move into negative territory, putting our entry order at 1.5711. We place our stop at the 20-EMA plus 20 pips or 1.5721 + 20 = 1.5741. Our first target is the entry price minus the amount risked or 1.5711 - (1.5741-1.5711) = 1.5681. The price trades down to a low of 1.5696, which is not low enough to reach our trigger. It then proceeds to reverse course, eventually hitting our stop, causing a total trade loss of 30 pips.

When trading the Five Minute Momo strategy the most important thing to be wary of is trading ranges that are too tight or too wide. In quiet trading hours where the price simply fluctuates around the 20-EMA, the MACD histogram may flip back and forth causing many false signals. Alternatively, if this strategy is implemented in a currency paid with a trading range that is too wide, the stop might be hit before the target is triggered.

Conclusion
The Five-Minute Momo Trade allows traders to profit on short bursts of momentum, while also providing the solid exit rules required to protect profits.

Essential Elements of a Successful Trader

by Jimmy Young
EURUSDTrader

Courage Under Stressful Conditions When the Outcome is Uncertain

All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.

You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.

However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you're taking.

Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.

Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.

The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.

For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a 'hold on until it comes back' strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.

The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).

So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.

Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?

If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.

Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus

Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.

To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.

Jimmy Young

Forex Info - New York Money Market Rate Indications

Dow Jones News

Bankers acceptances at 4.25 p.m. New York time.
1M 0.80
2M 1.15
3M 1.35
6M 2.00
9M 2.25
1Y 2.50
Federal funds: days high .2812; low .2188; latest bid .2500; offered .2500; prime lending rate at major banks 3.25; broker call loan rate 2.00

Dealer-placed commercial paper
30 days 0.60
60 days 1.00
90 days 1.25

Treasury bills
30 days 0.20-19 up .004
90 days 0.30-29 dn .004
180 days 0.49-48 up .004

Moody's yield figures
AAA corps 5.19

Click link to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=bsT0%2B90NQ2Wzo%2F4EZ8bLyw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

Banks Fall on Wall Street Losses - Forex Info

Asian share markets fell Friday, with financial stocks hit by further weakness in their U.S. counterparts and investors cautious as the weekend drew near.

Japan's Nikkei 225 ended down 1.9%, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.4% and South Korea's Kospi Composite dropped 3.7%, though in the closing minutes each recovered some ground lost earlier in mid-afternoon selling. New Zealand's NZX-50 fell 1.5%.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was down 2.3% in the afternoon session. China's Shanghai Composite Index rebounded from early losses to rise 0.9%, and Taiwan shares fell 2%. India's Sensitive Index lost 2.1% by early afternoon.

"With all the bad news circling the global economic environment, participants aren't willing to hold positions over the weekend, so we've seem some good old Friday profit taking," said IG Markets research analyst Ben Potter.

Chinese stocks in Shanghai flip-flopped in volatile trading, but electronics and petrochemical companies were gaining after the government Thursday authorized further sector-specific stimulus plans, with TCL up 5.4% and Shenzhen Noposion Agrochemicals adding 4.1% in Shenzhen trading.

Hong Kong shares were weak and Tanrich's Jackson Wong warned "the market will be dragged (down) further in the near-term, as the overall outlook on the U.S. market remains negative."

The declines for Asian indexes came after a sell-off in financial names pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its lowest point of the credit crisis and in roughly six years. U.S. stock futures were recently pointing toward a lower opening again, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 67 points.

"Expectations for the various measures [unveiled by the U.S. government to shore up the economy and financial markets] seem to have turned to distrust," said Hong In-young at HMC Investment Securities in Korea.

Financial stocks across Asia were weak with Westpac down 3.7% and National Australia Bank 2.1% lower in Sydney, and Korea's Shinhan Financial down 4.8%. Japan's Mizuho FG fell 4.1% and Shinsei Bank was down 1.1% while HBSC was off 1.8% in Hong Kong and Taiwan's Cathay Financial Holding dropped 2.3%.

Australia's Macquarie Group was down 5.7% despite an ongoing short selling ban, as Macquarie units, and the overall market, came under pressure as investors analysed corporate results released this week.

Qantas slumped 4.3% after Moody's Investor Service cut the company's long term senior unsecured rating to Baa2 from Baa1, citing a deterioration in Qantas' credit profile.

Bridgestone fell 7.4% in Tokyo after the tire maker released a cautious 2009 outlook on Thursday.

A slumping Korean won hurt shares in Seoul with the market briefly touching its lowest level in nearly 11 weeks. "Foreigners are unloading stocks at a fast pace and they seem to be alarmed by the fast deterioration" in the won, said Park Suk-hyun at Eugene Investment & Securities. The U.S. dollar broke over the KRW1,500 mark early Friday, to touch its highest level since Nov. 26.

New Zealand shares were still being dragged down by concerns about leverage at individual companies and weakness in corporate earnings.

Fisher & Paykel Appliances fell 4.8% with PGG Wrightson plunging 28.1%. Sky Network Television fell 5.7% after saying its first half net profit fell 16.7% from a year earlier, to NZ$42.6 million.

Singapore's Straits Times index was down 1.8% with Malaysia's index down 1%, Philippine shares 1% lower and Indonesian shares slipping 0.7%.

The euro was slightly lower against the U.S. dollar and yen, at $1.2585 from $1.2663 late in New York, and at 118.33 yen, from Y119.51. The dollar was trading around 94.03 yen, down from 94.39 yen.

BNZ strategist Danica Hampton expected the euro to lose more ground against the dollar soon. "I like the idea of selling the euro into rallies -- I'm still concerned about the euro-zone economy and its relationship with the Eastern European economies."

February gold futures were down $4.50 to $971.60 a troy ounce, after slipping $1.60 overnight in New York, but some analysts were still looking for a push in the near term to $1,000, given hefty flows into exchange-traded funds.

March Nymex crude oil futures were down 79 cents at $38.69 a barrel on Globex before the contract's expiry Friday, pulled down by falling U.S. stocks and data showing a record number of Americans are drawing government unemployment benefits. Negative indicators "put a huge dark cloud over the (oil) market," said Tony Rosado, a broker with GA Global Markets.

Earlier in New York, crude jumped 14% to a 10-day high after the Department of Energy reported the first draw on U.S. oil inventories since December.